Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 73¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
2 arb excluded
$2.2K
$1.69
78¢ → 72.5¢
-7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
44h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HerrieDavis | Noavg 78¢ | $711.52 | $616.35 | -$95.17 | 47% 1733-1932 (3665) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR | Yesavg 21.1¢ | $471.19 | $612.53 | +$141.33 | — 0-1 (1) |
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Noavg 62.2¢ | $402.75 | $368.67 | +$12.63 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62.2¢ | $258.38 | $282.42 | +$18.34 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32.5¢ | $100.13 | $86.25 | -$5.71 | |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 78¢ | $390 | $340 | -$52.5 | 73% 2882-1052 (3934) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 67.8¢ | $264.41 | $249.62 | -$10.99 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.8¢ | $176.39 | $176.82 | +$0.21 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32.3¢ | $84 | $72.8 | -$11.2 | |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $9.99 | $18.01 | +$8.03 | 60% 968-642 (1610) |
Invested
$711.52
Value
$616.35
PnL
-$95.17
Record
47%
1733-1932 (3665)
Invested
$471.19
Value
$612.53
PnL
+$141.33
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$402.75
Value
$368.67
PnL
+$12.63
Record
36%
13086-22900 (35986)
Both legs:
Tenebrus7Invested
$390
Value
$340
PnL
-$52.5
Record
73%
2882-1052 (3934)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$264.41
Value
$249.62
PnL
-$10.99
Record
52%
269-246 (515)
Both legs:
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$9.99
Value
$18.01
PnL
+$8.03
Record
60%
968-642 (1610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.