Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 19, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.1K
$176.28
66.4¢ → 84.6¢
+27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
505h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HerrieDavis | Noavg 64.5¢ | $439.73 | $575.81 | +$136.08 | 47% 1730-1928 (3658) |
 TBill1CTR | Yesavg 14¢ | $420 | $454.5 | +$40.5 | 44% 138-175 (313) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 86.1¢ | $37.66 | $37.09 | -$0.57 | 56% 9249-7400 (16649) |
 Donny.T<$100 | Noavg 85.8¢ | $17.21 | $16.98 | -$0.23 | 72% 465-178 (643) |
 ScottyNoooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.4¢ | $7.08 | $7.58 | +$0.5 | 51% 1524-1493 (3017) |
Invested
$439.73
Value
$575.81
PnL
+$136.08
Record
47%
1730-1928 (3658)
TBill1CTRInvested
$420
Value
$454.5
PnL
+$40.5
Record
44%
138-175 (313)
Invested
$37.66
Value
$37.09
PnL
-$0.57
Record
56%
9249-7400 (16649)
Donny.T<$100Invested
$17.21
Value
$16.98
PnL
-$0.23
Record
72%
465-178 (643)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100Invested
$7.08
Value
$7.58
PnL
+$0.5
Record
51%
1524-1493 (3017)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.