Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Darryn Peterson win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 10¢ · $625 held · ends May 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$625.02
-$71.11
14.6¢ → 10¢
-32% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thebug44CTR | Yesavg 14.6¢ | $649.99 | $577.19 | -$72.8 | 31% 38-85 (123) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR | Yesavg 14.6¢ | $115.5 | $33.03 | +$1.76 | 57% 3037-2281 (5318) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $14.88 | $14.8 | -$0.08 | 57% 12797-9706 (22503) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.