Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$3.4K
-$83.01
93¢ → 96.4¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
1148h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPrediction | Noavg 94.7¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$42.48 | 51% 3677-3531 (7208) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 89.7¢ | $774.89 | $822.76 | +$60.41 | 89% 4133-529 (4662) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 90.7¢ | $344.87 | $320.21 | -$0.86 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
 crypto-basenjiCTR | Yesavg 21.1¢ | $113.81 | $39.03 | -$188.51 | 39% 148-230 (378) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $29.04 | $32.15 | +$3.48 | 60% 968-642 (1610) |
StudyPredictionInvested
$2,200.5
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$42.48
Record
51%
3677-3531 (7208)
Invested
$774.89
Value
$822.76
PnL
+$60.41
Record
89%
4133-529 (4662)
Invested
$344.87
Value
$320.21
PnL
-$0.86
Record
36%
13086-22900 (35986)
crypto-basenjiCTRInvested
$113.81
Value
$39.03
PnL
-$188.51
Record
39%
148-230 (378)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$29.04
Value
$32.15
PnL
+$3.48
Record
60%
968-642 (1610)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.