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2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 90¢ · $729 held · ends Apr 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 40%
$728.9
$21.96
91¢ → 89.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 90%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Culture / mentionsCulture lost in both windows: −7.1 % (95 % CI −15 to −0.1) and −15.4 % (95 % CI −35 to −3) a trade.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
83h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV aviato | Noavg 91¢ | $662.5 | $649.81 | -$7.18 | 86% 2405-405 (2810) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $21.9 | $39.42 | +$17.52 | 18% 3681-16276 (19957) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $11.7 | $21.07 | +$9.36 | 36% 1994-3513 (5507) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $12.07 | $14.08 | +$2.01 | 57% 3013-2229 (5242) |
 Car<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $4.25 | $4.53 | +$0.25 | 67% 4113-1990 (6103) |
Invested
$662.5
Value
$649.81
PnL
-$7.18
Record
86%
2405-405 (2810)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$21.9
Value
$39.42
PnL
+$17.52
Record
18%
3681-16276 (19957)
Invested
$11.7
Value
$21.07
PnL
+$9.36
Record
36%
1994-3513 (5507)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$12.07
Value
$14.08
PnL
+$2.01
Record
57%
3013-2229 (5242)
Car<$100Invested
$4.25
Value
$4.53
PnL
+$0.25
Record
67%
4113-1990 (6103)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.