Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least $24M?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 25¢ · $730 held · ended Oct 26

Yes25¢No75¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$729.88

Combined PnL

$77.7

Smart Money Entry

18.1¢ → 25.1¢

+38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$697.09

Total Shares3,951

Combined PnL+$78.51

No1 trader

Total Value$32.79

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$0.81

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$405.85	$582.57	+$105.44	80% 308-79 (387)
NostdamCTR	Yesavg 27.3¢	$119.39	$88.81	-$30.58	54% 1406-1201 (2607)
cat-dog<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$33.6	$32.79	-$0.81	74% 74-26 (100)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 15.8¢	$17.21	$22.12	+$4.91	54% 4556-3891 (8447)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.4¢	$4.84	$3.59	-$1.25	47% 67-77 (144)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR

Yes

Invested

$405.85

Value

$582.57

PnL

+$105.44

Record

80%

308-79 (387)

NostdamCTR

Yes

Invested

$119.39

Value

$88.81

PnL

-$30.58

Record

54%

1406-1201 (2607)

cat-dog<$100

Invested

$33.6

Value

$32.79

PnL

-$0.81

Record

74%

74-26 (100)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.21

Value

$22.12

PnL

+$4.91

Record

54%

4556-3891 (8447)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.84

Value

$3.59

PnL

-$1.25

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.1%

25.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$269.49

Max Loss

-$100.00

369.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.