Will Clay Jenkins win the 2026 Dallas County Judge election?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$5.9K
$491.17
91.5¢ → 99.9¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Yesavg 94.9¢ | $4.2K | $4.1K | +$206.23 | — 1-1 (2) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 83.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.8K | +$287.54 | 55% 436-354 (790) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Noavg 2¢ | $2.8 | $1.96 | -$2.59 | 47% 2024-2240 (4264) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.