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OraculumNobiusNo
balthazar<$100NoNoYesNoYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
6
No 67%
Total Value
$365.94
Combined PnL
-$13.84
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$365.94
Total Shares366
Combined PnL+$0.68
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares848
Combined PnL-$14.52
No — 67%Yes — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OraculumNobius | Noavg 99.9¢ | $283.03 | $283.31 | +$0.28 | 89% 4932-602 (5534) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $35.33 | $35.49 | +$0.16 | 62% 18410-11080 (29490) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $33.33 | $33.5 | +$0.17 | 47% 124-141 (265) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $5.52 | — | -$5.52 | 32% 3859-8035 (11894) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $13.57 | $13.64 | +$0.07 | 34% 233-443 (676) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $9 | — | -$9 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
OraculumNobiusInvested
$283.03
Value
$283.31
PnL
+$0.28
Record
89%
4932-602 (5534)
balthazar<$100Invested
$35.33
Value
$35.49
PnL
+$0.16
Record
62%
18410-11080 (29490)
0X
0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100Invested
$33.33
Value
$33.5
PnL
+$0.17
Record
47%
124-141 (265)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100Invested
$5.52
Value
—
PnL
-$5.52
Record
32%
3859-8035 (11894)
KA
kaxel78<$100Invested
$13.57
Value
$13.64
PnL
+$0.07
Record
34%
233-443 (676)
AJ
AJSVCTR<$100Invested
$9
Value
—
PnL
-$9
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x68c30cde...ff3d1e
Slug
will-claude-fable-5pt1-max-be-the-best-ai-model-on-october-26-2026