Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Cilliers Brink be the next mayor of Tshwane?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 46¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$2.2K
$99.63
60.3¢ → 46¢
-24% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+40 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
567h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
18 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST StudentMoneyCTR | Yesavg 62.6¢ | $1.0K | $855.85 | -$163.12 | 71% 799-319 (1118) |
 paddaa | Noavg 35.4¢ | $616.4 | $824.06 | +$207.66 | 57% 796-607 (1403) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 43.6¢ | $294.91 | $296.83 | +$31.08 | 36% 13223-23096 (36319) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 54¢ | $90.18 | $166.88 | +$1.64 | 52% 993-912 (1905) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.8¢ | $8.05 | $30.43 | +$22.37 | 17% 3156-14947 (18103) |
Invested
$1,018.96
Value
$855.85
PnL
-$163.12
Record
71%
799-319 (1118)
paddaaInvested
$616.4
Value
$824.06
PnL
+$207.66
Record
57%
796-607 (1403)
Invested
$294.91
Value
$296.83
PnL
+$31.08
Record
36%
13223-23096 (36319)
Invested
$90.18
Value
$166.88
PnL
+$1.64
Record
52%
993-912 (1905)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$8.05
Value
$30.43
PnL
+$22.37
Record
17%
3156-14947 (18103)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.