Will China’s CPI increase by ≤0.6% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 82¢ · $423 held · ends Nov 9

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$423.42

Combined PnL

$35.3

Smart Money Entry

82.8¢ → 81.8¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$241.35

Total Shares274

Combined PnL-$6.44

Yes2 traders

Total Value$80.13

Total Shares534

Combined PnL+$41.74

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

144h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 77.9¢	$123.73	$126.23	+$2.5	56% 3466-2703 (6169)
Istaroth	Noavg 89.5¢	$135.74	$115.12	-$8.94	51% 269-258 (527)
AJ AJSVARB<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$126.86	$101.95	-$6.91	36% 13289-23211 (36500)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 18¢	$78.38	$65.4	-$7.22
└ No leg	Noavg 70.7¢	$32.52	$36.55	+$0.3
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.3¢	$9.45	$76.8	+$39.79	— 0-1 (1)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.9¢	$1.38	$3.33	+$1.95	50% 107-107 (214)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$123.73

Value

$126.23

PnL

+$2.5

Record

56%

3466-2703 (6169)

Istaroth

Invested

$135.74

Value

$115.12

PnL

-$8.94

Record

51%

269-258 (527)

AJSVARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$126.86

Value

$101.95

PnL

-$6.91

Record

36%

13289-23211 (36500)

Both legs:

Yes$78.3818¢-$7.22

No$32.5270.7¢+$0.3

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.45

Value

$76.8

PnL

+$39.79

Record

—

0-1 (1)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.38

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$1.95

Record

50%

107-107 (214)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

144h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.6%

81.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.