Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.6% and 2.0%?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $308 held · ends Jan 10, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, Jan 10, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$307.96

Combined PnL

$12.71

Smart Money Entry

90.4¢ → 97.4¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$301.75

Total Shares276

Combined PnL+$4.77

Yes3 traders

Total Value$6.2

Total Shares105

Combined PnL+$7.95

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AJ AJSV	Noavg 89.3¢	$266.75	$258.31	+$5.6	36% 13723-24173 (37896)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$30.25	$29.17	-$1.08	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$14.03	$14.27	+$0.24	33% 5748-11663 (17411)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$3.28	$4.13	+$6.85	18% 3414-15601 (19015)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.84	$1.53	+$0.74	80% 10491-2678 (13169)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.19	$0.55	+$0.36	41% 1910-2699 (4609)

AJSV

Invested

$266.75

Value

$258.31

PnL

+$5.6

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$30.25

Value

$29.17

PnL

-$1.08

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$14.03

Value

$14.27

PnL

+$0.24

Record

33%

5748-11663 (17411)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.28

Value

$4.13

PnL

+$6.85

Record

18%

3414-15601 (19015)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.84

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.74

Record

80%

10491-2678 (13169)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.55

PnL

+$0.36

Record

41%

1910-2699 (4609)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.