Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between -0.4% and 0.0%?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $179 held · ends Jan 10, 2027

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Sun, Jan 10, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$179

Combined PnL

$19.77

Smart Money Entry

95.6¢ → 98.9¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$172.45

Total Shares142

Combined PnL+$15.43

Yes2 traders

Total Value$7.04

Total Shares79

Combined PnL+$4.34

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AJ AJSV	Noavg 94.5¢	$112.09	$130.4	+$18.57	36% 13723-24173 (37896)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$30.94	$28.24	-$2.7	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 94¢	$14.25	$13.81	-$0.44	33% 5748-11663 (17411)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.92	$5.03	+$4.12	18% 3414-15601 (19015)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.9¢	$1.78	$2.01	+$0.23	80% 10491-2678 (13169)

AJSV

Invested

$112.09

Value

$130.4

PnL

+$18.57

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$30.94

Value

$28.24

PnL

-$2.7

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$14.25

Value

$13.81

PnL

-$0.44

Record

33%

5748-11663 (17411)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$4.12

Record

18%

3414-15601 (19015)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.78

Value

$2.01

PnL

+$0.23

Record

80%

10491-2678 (13169)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.