Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Chicago Fire FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 4.8¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$4.8K
$-1.4K
5.5¢ → 4.9¢
-12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 saintaphextwinCTR | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $5.9K | $4.5K | $-1.4K | 38% 383-617 (1000) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $308.73 | $283.5 | -$25.23 | 41% 1945-2752 (4697) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.