Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Yes — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Yes
Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?
Resolved Yes. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Yes 100%
$4.6K
$134.21
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Yesavg 96.7¢ | $3.5K | $3.7K | +$122.24 | 77% 1338-396 (1734) |
QM QMG-SCALAR | Yesavg 99.3¢ | $842.51 | $842.51 | +$6.26 | 77% 112-34 (146) |
 Ryxon21 | Yesavg 97¢ | $124.61 | $128.46 | +$5.72 | 71% 271-113 (384) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 11.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 64% 15093-8636 (23729) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 99¢ | — | — | +$0 | 80% 10409-2646 (13055) |
 FrozenParasite<$100 | Yesavg 69¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 402-328 (730) |
65 65765757<$100 | Yesavg 92.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 79% 260-69 (329) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 14838-11202 (26040) |
 archaic<$100 | Yesavg 87¢ | — | — | +$0 | 84% 1816-334 (2150) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 13468-23476 (36944) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 17¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 2971-2140 (5111) |
Invested
$3,545.1
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$122.24
Record
77%
1338-396 (1734)
Invested
$842.51
Value
$842.51
PnL
+$6.26
Record
77%
112-34 (146)
Ryxon21Invested
$124.61
Value
$128.46
PnL
+$5.72
Record
71%
271-113 (384)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
15093-8636 (23729)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
80%
10409-2646 (13055)
FrozenParasite<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
402-328 (730)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
79%
260-69 (329)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
14838-11202 (26040)
archaic<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
84%
1816-334 (2150)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
13468-23476 (36944)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
2971-2140 (5111)
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