Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 90¢ · $938 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$937.68
-$34.25
80.1¢ → 89.5¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
4727h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
8 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KR Krass | Noavg 78.4¢ | $392 | $442.5 | +$55.5 | 75% 450-154 (604) |
 Optimus-CTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $330 | $253 | -$99 | 61% 1191-751 (1942) |
 archaic | Noavg 82.6¢ | $165.83 | $171.59 | +$5.76 | 85% 1841-334 (2175) |
 Tenebrus7<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $62.11 | $65.39 | +$3.29 | 73% 2897-1055 (3952) |
BA balerinacapuchina<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $5 | $5.2 | +$0.2 | 73% 172-65 (237) |
Invested
$392
Value
$442.5
PnL
+$55.5
Record
75%
450-154 (604)
Optimus-CTRInvested
$330
Value
$253
PnL
-$99
Record
61%
1191-751 (1942)
archaicInvested
$165.83
Value
$171.59
PnL
+$5.76
Record
85%
1841-334 (2175)
Tenebrus7<$100Invested
$62.11
Value
$65.39
PnL
+$3.29
Record
73%
2897-1055 (3952)
Invested
$5
Value
$5.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
73%
172-65 (237)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.