Will Carolina Panthers win the 2026 NFC South?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 68¢ · $67 held · ends Jan 18, 2027

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Mon, Jan 18, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$67.01

Combined PnL

$20.93

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$42.08

Total Shares44

Combined PnL-$0.32

Yes1 trader

Total Value$24.63

Total Shares70

Combined PnL+$21.25

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 56.7¢	$41.62	$38	-$1.16	53% 269-238 (507)
probabilityCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$3.37	$24.63	+$21.25	42% 1236-1679 (2915)
YO YouSayUpISayDown<$100	Noavg 54¢	$3.24	$4.08	+$0.84	62% 1617-1006 (2623)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$41.62

Value

$38

PnL

-$1.16

Record

53%

269-238 (507)

probabilityCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.37

Value

$24.63

PnL

+$21.25

Record

42%

1236-1679 (2915)

YouSayUpISayDown<$100

Invested

$3.24

Value

$4.08

PnL

+$0.84

Record

62%

1617-1006 (2623)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.