Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Carlos Torres Piña win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 38¢ · $751 held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$750.7
$199.27
28.9¢ → 37.8¢
+31% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
1118h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FrozenParasiteCTR | Yesavg 29.7¢ | $85.71 | $623.21 | +$105.08 | 55% 426-349 (775) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $2.8 | $85.04 | +$82.24 | 57% 800-613 (1413) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Noavg 75.7¢ | $26.84 | $22.3 | -$4.55 | 36% 1994-3513 (5507) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.21 | $15.95 | +$15.74 | 48% 2019-2222 (4241) |
 GohstCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $3.5 | $4.21 | +$0.76 | 49% 727-759 (1486) |
FrozenParasiteCTRInvested
$85.71
Value
$623.21
PnL
+$105.08
Record
55%
426-349 (775)
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$2.8
Value
$85.04
PnL
+$82.24
Record
57%
800-613 (1413)
Invested
$26.84
Value
$22.3
PnL
-$4.55
Record
36%
1994-3513 (5507)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$0.21
Value
$15.95
PnL
+$15.74
Record
48%
2019-2222 (4241)
GohstCTR<$100Invested
$3.5
Value
$4.21
PnL
+$0.76
Record
49%
727-759 (1486)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.