Will Bryan Paterson win the 2026 Kingston mayoral election?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $879 held · ends Oct 27

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$879.08

Combined PnL

-$973.66

Smart Money Entry

87.7¢ → 100¢

+14% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$781.49

Total Shares1,530

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$97.59

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$82.06

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
mrworldwide	Noavg 98.4¢	$1.6K	$595.64	$-1.0K	69% 761-349 (1110)
OraculumNobius	Noavg 99.9¢	$163.81	$163.89	+$0.08	90% 5326-609 (5935)
archaicCTR	Yesavg 71.4¢	$336.27	$51.16	+$85.63	85% 1851-335 (2186)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100	Yesavg 95.5¢	$50	$46.43	-$3.57	71% 120-48 (168)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 43.2¢	$51.88	$11.76	-$40.12	62% 20216-12621 (32837)
Nadmi<$100	Noavg 3¢	$3.12	$10.2	+$5.93	47% 2024-2240 (4264)

mrworldwide

Invested

$1,617.27

Value

$595.64

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

69%

761-349 (1110)

OraculumNobius

Invested

$163.81

Value

$163.89

PnL

+$0.08

Record

90%

5326-609 (5935)

archaicCTR

Yes

Invested

$336.27

Value

$51.16

PnL

+$85.63

Record

85%

1851-335 (2186)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$46.43

PnL

-$3.57

Record

71%

120-48 (168)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$51.88

Value

$11.76

PnL

-$40.12

Record

62%

20216-12621 (32837)

Nadmi<$100

Invested

$3.12

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$5.93

Record

47%

2024-2240 (4264)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.