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Yes
balthazarNo
ArmageddonRewardsBillyNoYes
paddaaCTRYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Branislav Baroš win the 2026 Trnava mayoral election?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 75%
Total Value
$440.21
Combined PnL
-$643
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$335.21
Total Shares1,353
Combined PnL-$551.39
No2 traders
Total Value$105
Total Shares105
Combined PnL-$91.61
Yes — 60%No — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 45.7¢ | $502.94 | $335.21 | -$297.69 | 36% 12921-22626 (35547) |
balthazar | Noavg 73.2¢ | $76.85 | $105 | +$24.76 | 64% 12621-7155 (19776) |
ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 71.7¢ | $429.27 | $0 | -$116.37 | 57% 14688-11041 (25729) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $8.03 | — | -$2.7 | 80% 10154-2597 (12751) |
paddaaCTR | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $251 | — | -$251 | 57% 791-602 (1393) |
AJ
AJSVCTRInvested
$502.94
Value
$335.21
PnL
-$297.69
Record
36%
12921-22626 (35547)
balthazarInvested
$76.85
Value
$105
PnL
+$24.76
Record
64%
12621-7155 (19776)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$429.27
Value
$0
PnL
-$116.37
Record
57%
14688-11041 (25729)
EL
Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100Invested
$8.03
Value
—
PnL
-$2.7
Record
80%
10154-2597 (12751)
paddaaCTRInvested
$251
Value
—
PnL
-$251
Record
57%
791-602 (1393)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x8ab23316...e4a3c5
Slug
will-branislav-baros-win-the-2026-trnava-mayoral-election