Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 26?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 78¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$7.8K
-$466.84
85.2¢ → 77.5¢
-9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 83.9¢ | $5.3K | $5.0K | -$341.91 | 65% 1516-806 (2322) |
 justdance | Noavg 88.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$23.77 | 51% 2440-2375 (4815) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 87.1¢ | $969.94 | $1.0K | +$37.83 | 56% 1309-1040 (2349) |
FI fish8975344CTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $2.2K | $206.42 | -$184.69 | 24% 7-22 (29) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 91¢ | $112.54 | $110.68 | -$1.86 | 63% 579-333 (912) |
Invested
$5,296.18
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$341.91
Record
65%
1516-806 (2322)
justdanceInvested
$1,461.6
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$23.77
Record
51%
2440-2375 (4815)
Invested
$969.94
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$37.83
Record
56%
1309-1040 (2349)
Invested
$2,172.82
Value
$206.42
PnL
-$184.69
Record
24%
7-22 (29)
Invested
$112.54
Value
$110.68
PnL
-$1.86
Record
63%
579-333 (912)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.