Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 26?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 78¢ · $13K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$13.5K
-$772.53
78.6¢ → 77.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 81.2¢ | $11.0K | $10.2K | -$876.98 | 65% 1516-806 (2322) |
 justdance | Noavg 67.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.2K | +$273.88 | 51% 2440-2375 (4815) |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $489.78 | $639.43 | +$149.65 | 32% 68-142 (210) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 84.4¢ | $1.7K | $313.41 | -$281.59 | 56% 1309-1040 (2349) |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 31¢ | $155 | $117.5 | -$37.5 | 63% 579-333 (912) |
Invested
$11,022.26
Value
$10.2K
PnL
-$876.98
Record
65%
1516-806 (2322)
justdanceInvested
$1,973.02
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$273.88
Record
51%
2440-2375 (4815)
Invested
$489.78
Value
$639.43
PnL
+$149.65
Record
32%
68-142 (210)
Invested
$1,701.65
Value
$313.41
PnL
-$281.59
Record
56%
1309-1040 (2349)
Invested
$155
Value
$117.5
PnL
-$37.5
Record
63%
579-333 (912)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.