Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 25?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 26

No10¢No90¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

85.9¢ → 9.5¢

-89% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

No10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares16,640

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Yes1 trader

Total Value$171.83

Total Shares2,228

Combined PnL-$33.41

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 85.4¢	$629.34	$1.2K	+$606.25	67% 822-408 (1230)
NE never-stop-clicking	Yesavg 9¢	$200.49	$171.83	-$33.41	25% 18-54 (72)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 89.8¢	$1.4K	$125.04	-$982.6	53% 898-795 (1693)
justdance	Noavg 89.9¢	$732.45	$77.4	-$655.05	50% 1264-1279 (2543)
RI Rin2x<$100	Noavg 88¢	$26.4	$26.7	+$1.65	84% 1454-286 (1740)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$629.34

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$606.25

Record

67%

822-408 (1230)

never-stop-clicking

Yes

Invested

$200.49

Value

$171.83

PnL

-$33.41

Record

25%

18-54 (72)

0xDB5

Invested

$1,401.32

Value

$125.04

PnL

-$982.6

Record

53%

898-795 (1693)

justdance

Invested

$732.45

Value

$77.4

PnL

-$655.05

Record

50%

1264-1279 (2543)

Rin2x<$100

Invested

$26.4

Value

$26.7

PnL

+$1.65

Record

84%

1454-286 (1740)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.2%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$796.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

896.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.