Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 on October 26?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$21.0K
$246.73
90¢ → 95.9¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $16.6K | $16.6K | -$9.71 | 65% 1516-806 (2322) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 93.6¢ | $3.2K | $1.6K | -$288.15 | 56% 1363-1054 (2417) |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR | Yesavg 8.3¢ | $666.62 | $1.4K | +$706.37 | 33% 69-142 (211) |
 justdance | Noavg 90.9¢ | $815.53 | $744.94 | -$70.59 | 51% 2440-2375 (4815) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 94.4¢ | $755.2 | $664 | -$91.2 | 64% 585-335 (920) |
Invested
$16,560.04
Value
$16.6K
PnL
-$9.71
Record
65%
1516-806 (2322)
Invested
$3,161.76
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$288.15
Record
56%
1363-1054 (2417)
Invested
$666.62
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$706.37
Record
33%
69-142 (211)
justdanceInvested
$815.53
Value
$744.94
PnL
-$70.59
Record
51%
2440-2375 (4815)
Invested
$755.2
Value
$664
PnL
-$91.2
Record
64%
585-335 (920)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.