Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 October 26-November 1?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 2

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$121.05

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 52.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares4,181

Combined PnL+$113.54

No2 traders

Total Value$84.84

Total Shares182

Combined PnL+$7.51

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 53.6¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$37.8	65% 1516-806 (2322)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Yesavg 46.5¢	$756.51	$870.23	+$113.87	54% 714-613 (1327)
PippiTrader	Yesavg 46.5¢	$232.73	$267.5	+$34.77	59% 247-171 (418)
0X 0xDB5CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$46	$46.5	+$0.5	56% 1363-1054 (2417)
TO TokorCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$31.33	$38.34	+$7.01	64% 585-335 (920)
justdance<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$29.4	$32.1	+$2.7	51% 2440-2375 (4815)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$1,569.59

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$37.8

Record

65%

1516-806 (2322)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Yes

Invested

$756.51

Value

$870.23

PnL

+$113.87

Record

54%

714-613 (1327)

PippiTrader

Yes

Invested

$232.73

Value

$267.5

PnL

+$34.77

Record

59%

247-171 (418)

0xDB5CTR<$100

Invested

$46

Value

$46.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

56%

1363-1054 (2417)

TokorCTR<$100

Invested

$31.33

Value

$38.34

PnL

+$7.01

Record

64%

585-335 (920)

justdance<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.4

Value

$32.1

PnL

+$2.7

Record

51%

2440-2375 (4815)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.