Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on October 26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $19K held · ends Oct 27

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

-$15.42

Smart Money Entry

94.6¢ → 96.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$19.2K

Total Shares20,115

Combined PnL+$166.39

Yes1 trader

Total Value$49.82

Total Shares1,581

Combined PnL-$181.81

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 95.4¢	$14.2K	$14.2K	+$19.53	65% 1435-766 (2201)
justdance	Noavg 93.6¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$48	51% 2436-2374 (4810)
TO Tokor	Noavg 91.4¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$62.1	64% 576-331 (907)
SH Sharky6999	Noavg 90.3¢	$638.38	$675.14	+$36.76	98% 6530-151 (6681)
0X 0xDB5CTR	Yesavg 7.9¢	$297.66	$49.82	-$181.81	56% 1296-1026 (2322)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$14,217.9

Value

$14.2K

PnL

+$19.53

Record

65%

1435-766 (2201)

justdance

Invested

$2,808

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$48

Record

51%

2436-2374 (4810)

Tokor

Invested

$1,370.4

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$62.1

Record

64%

576-331 (907)

Sharky6999

Invested

$638.38

Value

$675.14

PnL

+$36.76

Record

98%

6530-151 (6681)

0xDB5CTR

Yes

Invested

$297.66

Value

$49.82

PnL

-$181.81

Record

56%

1296-1026 (2322)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.