Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 25¢ · $654 held · ends Nov 2

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$654.44

Combined PnL

-$336.58

Smart Money Entry

63.4¢ → 24.5¢

-61% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$438.59

Total Shares538

Combined PnL+$30.49

Yes3 traders

Total Value$215.85

Total Shares918

Combined PnL-$367.08

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 70¢	$366.85	$396.52	+$29.67	65% 1516-806 (2322)
PippiTraderCTR	Yesavg 73.4¢	$366.69	$117.48	-$249.22	59% 247-171 (418)
justdanceCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.1¢	$59.34	$53.35	-$5.99	51% 2440-2375 (4815)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR	Yesavg 81.7¢	$164.28	$45.02	-$111.87	54% 714-613 (1327)
0X 0xDB5<$100	Noavg 75¢	$41.25	$42.08	+$0.83	56% 1363-1054 (2417)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$366.85

Value

$396.52

PnL

+$29.67

Record

65%

1516-806 (2322)

PippiTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$366.69

Value

$117.48

PnL

-$249.22

Record

59%

247-171 (418)

justdanceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.34

Value

$53.35

PnL

-$5.99

Record

51%

2440-2375 (4815)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4CTR

Yes

Invested

$164.28

Value

$45.02

PnL

-$111.87

Record

54%

714-613 (1327)

0xDB5<$100

Invested

$41.25

Value

$42.08

PnL

+$0.83

Record

56%

1363-1054 (2417)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.8%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$272.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

372.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.