Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 71¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$824.4

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 70.5¢

-5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$976.6

Total Shares3,005

Combined PnL+$841.21

No3 traders

Total Value$212.49

Total Shares307

Combined PnL-$16.81

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QM QMG-CORECTR	Yesavg 4.5¢	$136.36	$975	+$838.64	77% 1341-396 (1737)
balthazar	Noavg 73.1¢	$144.51	$136.42	-$8.09	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 71.3¢	$98.47	$95.02	-$0.86	49% 269-278 (547)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.3¢	$67.72	$65.57	-$2.36
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.4¢	$27.96	$29.46	+$1.5
FL flawfence<$100	Noavg 77¢	$81.33	$72.61	-$8.72	45% 254-307 (561)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.46	$3.46	-$0	47% 68-78 (146)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.9¢	$34.5	$1.6	+$2.57	56% 10997-8571 (19568)

QMG-CORECTR

Yes

Invested

$136.36

Value

$975

PnL

+$838.64

Record

77%

1341-396 (1737)

balthazar

Invested

$144.51

Value

$136.42

PnL

-$8.09

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$98.47

Value

$95.02

PnL

-$0.86

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Both legs:

No$67.7271.3¢-$2.36

Yes$27.9629.4¢+$1.5

flawfence<$100

Invested

$81.33

Value

$72.61

PnL

-$8.72

Record

45%

254-307 (561)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.46

Value

$3.46

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.5

Value

$1.6

PnL

+$2.57

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.