Will Beatriz Mojica Morga win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$2.4K
$1.7K
43.2¢ → 88.3¢
+104% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 88%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
789h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $127.57 | $1.7K | +$1.5K | 52% 993-912 (1905) |
 Tenebrus7 | Yesavg 78.1¢ | $156.2 | $353.4 | +$41.4 | 73% 2884-1052 (3936) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYER | Yesavg 52¢ | $51.92 | $300.89 | +$161.89 | 45% 25-31 (56) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Yesavg 51.1¢ | $15.33 | $26.51 | +$11.18 | 37% 1908-3254 (5162) |
 Gohst<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $4.96 | $8.27 | +$3.31 | 49% 722-756 (1478) |
Invested
$127.57
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
52%
993-912 (1905)
Tenebrus7Invested
$156.2
Value
$353.4
PnL
+$41.4
Record
73%
2884-1052 (3936)
EsperanzasDESTROYERInvested
$51.92
Value
$300.89
PnL
+$161.89
Record
45%
25-31 (56)
Invested
$15.33
Value
$26.51
PnL
+$11.18
Record
37%
1908-3254 (5162)
Gohst<$100Invested
$4.96
Value
$8.27
PnL
+$3.31
Record
49%
722-756 (1478)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.