Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 89¢ · $3K held · ends Feb 1, 2027

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Mon, Feb 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$109.73

Smart Money Entry

82.5¢ → 88.6¢

+7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,283

Combined PnL-$107.35

Yes3 traders

Total Value$506.88

Total Shares4,408

Combined PnL-$2.39

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

266h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (2 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 2

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AJ AJSV	Noavg 83.6¢	$2.2K	$1.9K	-$61.97	36% 13223-23096 (36319)
0xdc3E831cadCTR	Yesavg 11.3¢	$468.94	$476.34	-$0.87	50% 1780-1809 (3589)
PaddyAlpha	Noavg 76.2¢	$374.16	$324.56	-$45.38	60% 968-644 (1612)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.4¢	$30.87	$24.65	-$6.22	37% 1908-3254 (5162)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$1.18	$5.88	+$4.7	39% 1742-2669 (4411)

AJSV

Invested

$2,207.48

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$61.97

Record

36%

13223-23096 (36319)

0xdc3E831cadCTR

Yes

Invested

$468.94

Value

$476.34

PnL

-$0.87

Record

50%

1780-1809 (3589)

PaddyAlpha

Invested

$374.16

Value

$324.56

PnL

-$45.38

Record

60%

968-644 (1612)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.87

Value

$24.65

PnL

-$6.22

Record

37%

1908-3254 (5162)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$5.88

PnL

+$4.7

Record

39%

1742-2669 (4411)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

266h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (2 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 2

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.1%

88.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.