Will Babalwa Lobishe be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 66¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$2.7K
$77.36
76.3¢ → 65.9¢
-14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 76.3¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$87.75 | 53% 1079-967 (2046) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $99.99 | $86.99 | -$13 | 36% 2017-3569 (5586) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 67.3¢ | $26.91 | $27.84 | +$0.93 | 61% 20465-12833 (33298) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $0.73 | $0.9 | +$1.68 | 77% 11045-3377 (14422) |
Invested
$2,455.77
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$87.75
Record
53%
1079-967 (2046)
Invested
$99.99
Value
$86.99
PnL
-$13
Record
36%
2017-3569 (5586)
balthazar<$100Invested
$26.91
Value
$27.84
PnL
+$0.93
Record
61%
20465-12833 (33298)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.9
PnL
+$1.68
Record
77%
11045-3377 (14422)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.