Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $21K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$21.1K
$7.1K
58.1¢ → 91.5¢
+57% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | Noavg 52.9¢ | $8.3K | $15.6K | +$6.0K | 89% 1614-199 (1813) |
 alanhutton | Noavg 75.5¢ | $3.8K | $4.6K | +$799.32 | 70% 300-131 (431) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 63.6¢ | $549.39 | $790.05 | +$240.66 | 89% 4111-525 (4636) |
 XieGuangKun | Noavg 48¢ | $32.37 | $112.02 | +$53.26 | 51% 364-348 (712) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.