Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 37¢ · $642 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$642.28
$272.32
14.8¢ → 37¢
+150% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 37%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 76.6¢ | $336.98 | $309.15 | -$6.75 | 54% 264-227 (491) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 76.6¢ | $232.24 | $210.69 | -$24.05 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 23.8¢ | $76.95 | $98.46 | +$17.3 | |
 GenaTheBondKilIerCTR | Noavg 7¢ | $21.88 | $155.96 | +$209.45 | 50% 501-498 (999) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 34.2¢ | $256.8 | $61.38 | +$0.81 | 56% 3387-2644 (6031) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 7.2¢ | $6.06 | $55.58 | +$49.52 | 17% 3139-14855 (17994) |
HA HauchnCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.6¢ | $63.32 | $32.81 | -$30.51 | 38% 58-96 (154) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 10.5¢ | $36.8 | $26.49 | +$43.06 | 44% 4861-6195 (11056) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$336.98
Value
$309.15
PnL
-$6.75
Record
54%
264-227 (491)
Both legs:
GenaTheBondKilIerCTRInvested
$21.88
Value
$155.96
PnL
+$209.45
Record
50%
501-498 (999)
Invested
$256.8
Value
$61.38
PnL
+$0.81
Record
56%
3387-2644 (6031)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$6.06
Value
$55.58
PnL
+$49.52
Record
17%
3139-14855 (17994)
Invested
$63.32
Value
$32.81
PnL
-$30.51
Record
38%
58-96 (154)
Invested
$36.8
Value
$26.49
PnL
+$43.06
Record
44%
4861-6195 (11056)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.