Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 29¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$5.3K
$1.2K
Research grade
AvoidYes at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
530h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
23 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FU Fulgurator | No | $5.1K | $5.1K | +$1.2K | 91% 40-4 (44) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $3.93 | $94.83 | +$15.4 | 47% 1717-1922 (3639) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $6 | $70 | +$64 | 48% 1996-2164 (4160) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.7¢ | $53.11 | $29.13 | -$23.98 | 40% 1736-2647 (4383) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.8¢ | $25.32 | $24.64 | -$0.68 | 63% 2583-1549 (4132) |
Invested
$5,078.23
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
91%
40-4 (44)
Invested
$3.93
Value
$94.83
PnL
+$15.4
Record
47%
1717-1922 (3639)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$6
Value
$70
PnL
+$64
Record
48%
1996-2164 (4160)
Invested
$53.11
Value
$29.13
PnL
-$23.98
Record
40%
1736-2647 (4383)
Invested
$25.32
Value
$24.64
PnL
-$0.68
Record
63%
2583-1549 (4132)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.