Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 38¢ · $970 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$970.13
-$146.96
53.5¢ → 37.5¢
-30% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $839.14 | $596.43 | -$98.99 | 36% 13223-23096 (36319) |
HE HerrieDavis | Noavg 62.5¢ | $152.68 | $144.16 | -$8.52 | 37% 1908-3254 (5162) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Noavg 19¢ | $34.2 | $104.4 | +$67.5 | 50% 361-355 (716) |
 NostdamCTR | Yesavg 67¢ | $36.84 | $79.99 | -$62.49 | 54% 1399-1199 (2598) |
TN tnlCTR | Yesavg 75¢ | $89.6 | $45.16 | -$44.45 | 51% 477-460 (937) |
Invested
$839.14
Value
$596.43
PnL
-$98.99
Record
36%
13223-23096 (36319)
Invested
$152.68
Value
$144.16
PnL
-$8.52
Record
37%
1908-3254 (5162)
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$34.2
Value
$104.4
PnL
+$67.5
Record
50%
361-355 (716)
NostdamCTRInvested
$36.84
Value
$79.99
PnL
-$62.49
Record
54%
1399-1199 (2598)
Invested
$89.6
Value
$45.16
PnL
-$44.45
Record
51%
477-460 (937)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.