Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 99¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
$8.1K
$3.2K
85.3¢ → 98.7¢
+16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KU kukubaja | Yesavg 95.8¢ | $3.7K | $3.9K | +$138.17 | 84% 492-92 (584) |
 NadmiCTR | Noavg 1.8¢ | $97.5 | $2.5K | +$2.5K | 48% 2017-2215 (4232) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000 | Yesavg 99¢ | $818.71 | $819.12 | +$0.41 | 42% 1957-2699 (4656) |
 balthazarCTR | Noavg 24.7¢ | $290.28 | $572.38 | +$282.1 | 63% 16724-10007 (26731) |
 Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $2.91 | $303.29 | +$300.38 | 50% 380-380 (760) |
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100 | Noavg 59.4¢ | $74.48 | $59.77 | -$14.71 | 45% 107-129 (236) |
TY TyshaCTR<$100 | Noavg 14.1¢ | $18.27 | $0.85 | -$17.43 | 73% 7800-2867 (10667) |
Invested
$3,715.61
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$138.17
Record
84%
492-92 (584)
NadmiCTRInvested
$97.5
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
48%
2017-2215 (4232)
Invested
$818.71
Value
$819.12
PnL
+$0.41
Record
42%
1957-2699 (4656)
balthazarCTRInvested
$290.28
Value
$572.38
PnL
+$282.1
Record
63%
16724-10007 (26731)
Contentious-DinnerdateInvested
$2.91
Value
$303.29
PnL
+$300.38
Record
50%
380-380 (760)
Invested
$74.48
Value
$59.77
PnL
-$14.71
Record
45%
107-129 (236)
Invested
$18.27
Value
$0.85
PnL
-$17.43
Record
73%
7800-2867 (10667)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.