Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 20¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$1.4K
$774.06
11.9¢ → 20.1¢
+68% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 20%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DEGENKHANCTR | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $463.58 | $1.3K | +$797.73 | 66% 1093-559 (1652) |
 KimchiCapitalCTR | Yesavg 32.3¢ | $108.95 | $70.4 | -$44.95 | 73% 388-142 (530) |
 AllByMyseIfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.9¢ | $25.4 | $67.41 | -$1.81 | 65% 663-354 (1017) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.5¢ | $27.69 | $50.79 | +$23.1 | 37% 1928-3336 (5264) |
DEGENKHANCTRInvested
$463.58
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$797.73
Record
66%
1093-559 (1652)
KimchiCapitalCTRInvested
$108.95
Value
$70.4
PnL
-$44.95
Record
73%
388-142 (530)
AllByMyseIfCTR<$100Invested
$25.4
Value
$67.41
PnL
-$1.81
Record
65%
663-354 (1017)
Invested
$27.69
Value
$50.79
PnL
+$23.1
Record
37%
1928-3336 (5264)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.