Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2027 (ET)?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $372 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$372.47
-$2.32
99.8¢ → 99.7¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO Hourglass | Noavg 99.8¢ | $167.23 | $166.73 | -$0.5 | 77% 8485-2481 (10966) |
ME merod | Noavg 99.9¢ | $165.83 | $165.09 | -$0.75 | 55% 1844-1501 (3345) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $38.92 | $38.79 | -$0.14 | 49% 3246-3386 (6632) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $3.05 | $1.77 | -$0.68 | 63% 16724-10007 (26731) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.34 | $0.09 | -$0.25 | 36% 13848-24478 (38326) |
Invested
$167.23
Value
$166.73
PnL
-$0.5
Record
77%
8485-2481 (10966)
Invested
$165.83
Value
$165.09
PnL
-$0.75
Record
55%
1844-1501 (3345)
Invested
$38.92
Value
$38.79
PnL
-$0.14
Record
49%
3246-3386 (6632)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$3.05
Value
$1.77
PnL
-$0.68
Record
63%
16724-10007 (26731)
Invested
$0.34
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$0.25
Record
36%
13848-24478 (38326)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.