Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in March 2027 (ET)?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $388 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$388.22
-$2.13
99¢ → 98.9¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO Hourglass | Noavg 98.8¢ | $165.63 | $164.72 | -$0.91 | 77% 8485-2481 (10966) |
ME merod | Noavg 99.9¢ | $165.75 | $163.1 | -$2.66 | 55% 1844-1501 (3345) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $38.77 | $38.32 | -$0.46 | 49% 3246-3386 (6632) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Noavg 93.2¢ | $20.2 | $22.09 | +$1.89 | 36% 13848-24478 (38326) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.