Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in July 2027 (ET)?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $372 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$371.64

Combined PnL

-$2.34

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.6¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$370.6

Total Shares373

Combined PnL-$1.01

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.04

Total Shares215

Combined PnL-$1.34

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO Hourglass	Noavg 99.5¢	$166.89	$166.73	-$0.16	77% 8485-2481 (10966)
ME merod	Noavg 99.9¢	$165.83	$165.09	-$0.75	55% 1844-1501 (3345)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$38.88	$38.79	-$0.1	49% 3246-3386 (6632)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$2.56	$0.63	-$1.24	63% 16724-10007 (26731)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.52	$0.42	-$0.1	36% 13848-24478 (38326)

Hourglass

Invested

$166.89

Value

$166.73

PnL

-$0.16

Record

77%

8485-2481 (10966)

merod

Invested

$165.83

Value

$165.09

PnL

-$0.75

Record

55%

1844-1501 (3345)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$38.88

Value

$38.79

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

3246-3386 (6632)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.56

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$1.24

Record

63%

16724-10007 (26731)

AJSVCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$0.1

Record

36%

13848-24478 (38326)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.