Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in February 2027 (ET)?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$2.1K
-$18.42
99.3¢ → 98.8¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.4¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$11.88 | 63% 16724-10007 (26731) |
HO Hourglass | Noavg 98.6¢ | $165.27 | $165.55 | +$0.28 | 77% 8485-2481 (10966) |
ME merod | Noavg 99.9¢ | $165.75 | $163.93 | -$1.83 | 55% 1844-1501 (3345) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $36.93 | $38.51 | +$1.58 | 49% 3246-3386 (6632) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $8.9 | $3.28 | -$5.62 | 36% 13848-24478 (38326) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $1.2 | $0.25 | -$0.95 | 80% 10601-2702 (13303) |
balthazarInvested
$1,693.79
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$11.88
Record
63%
16724-10007 (26731)
Invested
$165.27
Value
$165.55
PnL
+$0.28
Record
77%
8485-2481 (10966)
Invested
$165.75
Value
$163.93
PnL
-$1.83
Record
55%
1844-1501 (3345)
Invested
$36.93
Value
$38.51
PnL
+$1.58
Record
49%
3246-3386 (6632)
Invested
$8.9
Value
$3.28
PnL
-$5.62
Record
36%
13848-24478 (38326)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$0.95
Record
80%
10601-2702 (13303)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.