Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in April 2027 (ET)?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $366 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$365.82
-$5.76
99.6¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO Hourglass | Noavg 99.4¢ | $166.67 | $163.88 | -$2.79 | 77% 8485-2481 (10966) |
ME merod | Noavg 99.9¢ | $165.83 | $162.27 | -$3.57 | 55% 1844-1501 (3345) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $38.77 | $38.12 | -$0.65 | 49% 3246-3386 (6632) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.3 | $1.55 | +$1.25 | 36% 13848-24478 (38326) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.