Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 50¢ · $565 held · ends Nov 26

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Thu, Nov 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$565.08

Combined PnL

-$21.67

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 50¢

-13% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$374.66

Total Shares711

Combined PnL-$38.85

No2 traders

Total Value$190.42

Total Shares381

Combined PnL+$17.19

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KimchiCapital	Yesavg 57.1¢	$271.54	$256.78	-$12.39	73% 373-137 (510)
AJ AJSV	Noavg 45.4¢	$118.41	$118.92	+$12.18	36% 13062-22853 (35915)
LI lissartter	Yesavg 57.2¢	$279.71	$117.89	-$26.47	44% 4862-6195 (11057)
StupidMonkeyyy<$100	Noavg 39.9¢	$66.5	$71.5	+$5.01	49% 128-135 (263)

KimchiCapital

Yes

Invested

$271.54

Value

$256.78

PnL

-$12.39

Record

73%

373-137 (510)

AJSV

Invested

$118.41

Value

$118.92

PnL

+$12.18

Record

36%

13062-22853 (35915)

lissartter

Yes

Invested

$279.71

Value

$117.89

PnL

-$26.47

Record

44%

4862-6195 (11057)

StupidMonkeyyy<$100

Invested

$66.5

Value

$71.5

PnL

+$5.01

Record

49%

128-135 (263)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.0%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$92.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

192.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.