Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (80%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 21¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
$148.82
46.2¢ → 20.5¢
-56% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
543h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 48.3¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$220.05 | 36% 12963-22716 (35679) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 49.2¢ | $207 | $326 | +$119 | 56% 3387-2644 (6031) |
 The-JokerCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $326.8 | $183.33 | -$191.3 | 68% 1418-670 (2088) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 65.2¢ | $133.92 | $117.4 | -$3.15 | 54% 264-227 (491) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.2¢ | $76.59 | $93.33 | +$17.42 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.7¢ | $44.26 | $24.07 | -$20.57 | |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $0.28 | $1.36 | +$1.07 | 55% 1471-1222 (2693) |
Invested
$1,939.38
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$220.05
Record
36%
12963-22716 (35679)
Invested
$207
Value
$326
PnL
+$119
Record
56%
3387-2644 (6031)
The-JokerCTRInvested
$326.8
Value
$183.33
PnL
-$191.3
Record
68%
1418-670 (2088)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$133.92
Value
$117.4
PnL
-$3.15
Record
54%
264-227 (491)
Both legs:
Invested
$0.28
Value
$1.36
PnL
+$1.07
Record
55%
1471-1222 (2693)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.