Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$2.0K
$23.25
81.4¢ → 94.8¢
+16% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSV | Noavg 78.2¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | +$1.87 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 87.5¢ | $690.54 | $642.25 | -$14.35 | 43% 269-355 (624) |
 balthazar | Noavg 86.3¢ | $142.55 | $154.92 | +$12.37 | 62% 18410-11080 (29490) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 76.3¢ | $53.13 | $65.28 | +$12.15 | 42% 5126-7042 (12168) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 46.5¢ | $9.3 | $18.74 | +$9.45 | 54% 3633-3138 (6771) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 80.4¢ | $10.65 | $12.42 | +$1.77 | 49% 3366-3503 (6869) |
Invested
$1,173.33
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$1.87
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
IstarothInvested
$690.54
Value
$642.25
PnL
-$14.35
Record
43%
269-355 (624)
balthazarInvested
$142.55
Value
$154.92
PnL
+$12.37
Record
62%
18410-11080 (29490)
Invested
$53.13
Value
$65.28
PnL
+$12.15
Record
42%
5126-7042 (12168)
Invested
$9.3
Value
$18.74
PnL
+$9.45
Record
54%
3633-3138 (6771)
Invested
$10.65
Value
$12.42
PnL
+$1.77
Record
49%
3366-3503 (6869)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.