Will $ANSEM dip to $0.06 before 2027?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 77¢ · $248 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes77¢No23¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$247.74

Combined PnL

-$108.89

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 77¢

+29% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$218.03

Total Shares641

Combined PnL-$122.9

No1 trader

Total Value$29.7

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$14.01

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PaddyAlpha	Yesavg 59.4¢	$408.25	$155.37	-$120.5	60% 975-651 (1626)
solwizzo-onX<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$14	$34	+$20	66% 341-172 (513)
IstarothCTR<$100	Noavg 28.1¢	$22.6	$29.7	+$14.01	43% 269-355 (624)
alanhutton<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$45.6	$20.4	-$25.2	69% 308-136 (444)
HI hithitfar<$100	Yesavg 58.8¢	$5.46	$8.26	+$2.8	57% 458-343 (801)

PaddyAlpha

Yes

Invested

$408.25

Value

$155.37

PnL

-$120.5

Record

60%

975-651 (1626)

solwizzo-onX<$100

Yes

Invested

$14

Value

$34

PnL

+$20

Record

66%

341-172 (513)

IstarothCTR<$100

Invested

$22.6

Value

$29.7

PnL

+$14.01

Record

43%

269-355 (624)

alanhutton<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.6

Value

$20.4

PnL

-$25.2

Record

69%

308-136 (444)

hithitfar<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.46

Value

$8.26

PnL

+$2.8

Record

57%

458-343 (801)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.