Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 44¢ · $5K held
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$5.0K
$171.57
46.2¢ → 44.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CarCTR | Yesavg 46.5¢ | $4.4K | $4.5K | +$126.32 | 67% 4125-1996 (6121) |
 SocialistaCTR | Yesavg 47¢ | $235 | $222.5 | +$7.5 | 63% 2660-1567 (4227) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR | Yesavg 41.3¢ | $149.23 | $160.36 | +$11.13 | 60% 976-656 (1632) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $145.49 | $157.91 | +$26.61 | 53% 6198-5435 (11633) |
CarCTRInvested
$4,364.53
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$126.32
Record
67%
4125-1996 (6121)
SocialistaCTRInvested
$235
Value
$222.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
63%
2660-1567 (4227)
PaddyAlphaCTRInvested
$149.23
Value
$160.36
PnL
+$11.13
Record
60%
976-656 (1632)
Invested
$145.49
Value
$157.91
PnL
+$26.61
Record
53%
6198-5435 (11633)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.