Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Anne Hathaway win Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 48¢ · $4K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$3.6K
-$430.68
Research grade
NeutralNo at 48%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1151h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
20 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 62.9¢ | $224.46 | $1.5K | -$433.65 | 52% 999-914 (1913) |
 ImJustKen | Yesavg 40.2¢ | $577.9 | $765.42 | +$187.52 | 53% 3027-2635 (5662) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR | No | $704.26 | $704.26 | -$235.32 | 53% 356-310 (666) |
 StarMaster | Yesavg 51.7¢ | $499.06 | $511.89 | +$3.17 | 53% 1779-1573 (3352) |
 TheKinginYellow | Yes | $148.4 | $148.4 | +$47.6 | 67% 813-395 (1208) |
Invested
$224.46
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$433.65
Record
52%
999-914 (1913)
ImJustKenInvested
$577.9
Value
$765.42
PnL
+$187.52
Record
53%
3027-2635 (5662)
FrozenParasiteCTRInvested
$704.26
Value
$704.26
PnL
-$235.32
Record
53%
356-310 (666)
StarMasterInvested
$499.06
Value
$511.89
PnL
+$3.17
Record
53%
1779-1573 (3352)
TheKinginYellowInvested
$148.4
Value
$148.4
PnL
+$47.6
Record
67%
813-395 (1208)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.