Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 91¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$175.96

Smart Money Entry

90.1¢ → 91.2¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,766

Combined PnL+$104.7

Yes4 traders

Total Value$181.69

Total Shares2,492

Combined PnL+$71.26

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 83.8¢	$638.01	$706.49	+$68.48	48% 2070-2214 (4284)
Donny.T	Noavg 94.9¢	$419.89	$503.32	+$23.27	72% 465-178 (643)
OL OLOTH	Noavg 98¢	$358.03	$339.11	+$3	96% 720-29 (749)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$57.22	$99.5	+$42.28	50% 871-875 (1746)
HE HerrieDavis<$100	Noavg 82.5¢	$79.63	$89.57	+$9.94	47% 1727-1926 (3653)
BiDiFakePollsCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.3¢	$43	$72	+$29	58% 156-114 (270)
SpecksalamCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$9.3	$8.98	-$0.33	52% 35-32 (67)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$0.91	$1.22	+$0.31	56% 3384-2637 (6021)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$638.01

Value

$706.49

PnL

+$68.48

Record

48%

2070-2214 (4284)

Donny.T

Invested

$419.89

Value

$503.32

PnL

+$23.27

Record

72%

465-178 (643)

OLOTH

Invested

$358.03

Value

$339.11

PnL

+$3

Record

96%

720-29 (749)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.22

Value

$99.5

PnL

+$42.28

Record

50%

871-875 (1746)

HerrieDavis<$100

Invested

$79.63

Value

$89.57

PnL

+$9.94

Record

47%

1727-1926 (3653)

BiDiFakePollsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43

Value

$72

PnL

+$29

Record

58%

156-114 (270)

SpecksalamCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.3

Value

$8.98

PnL

-$0.33

Record

52%

35-32 (67)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.31

Record

56%

3384-2637 (6021)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.5%

91.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.