Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (84%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Andrew Scott win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 16¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$153.24

Smart Money Entry

15.1¢ → 16¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares6,956

Combined PnL+$153.24

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 14.9¢	$867.01	$1.0K	+$152.77	53% 3029-2635 (5664)
TheKinginYellowCTR	Yesavg 17¢	$119	$99.75	-$7	67% 819-396 (1215)
StarMasterCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$80	$95	+$7.5	53% 1803-1592 (3395)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$1	$0.97	-$0.03	50% 646-642 (1288)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$867.01

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$152.77

Record

53%

3029-2635 (5664)

TheKinginYellowCTR

Yes

Invested

$119

Value

$99.75

PnL

-$7

Record

67%

819-396 (1215)

StarMasterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80

Value

$95

PnL

+$7.5

Record

53%

1803-1592 (3395)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

646-642 (1288)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 84%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.7%

16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$464.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

564.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.