Will Ana Brnabić win the next Serbia presidential election?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ends May 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$2.2K
-$16.96
82.2¢ → 88.5¢
+8% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSV | Noavg 83.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$35.57 | 36% 13289-23211 (36500) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 79.2¢ | $532.55 | $511.92 | -$5.47 | 51% 269-258 (527) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $85.85 | $99.97 | +$14.12 | 46% 1596-1860 (3456) |
 probability<$100 | Noavg 77.6¢ | $69.8 | $79.65 | +$9.85 | 42% 1239-1688 (2927) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $51.6 | $53.1 | +$1.5 | 44% 4871-6203 (11074) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $28.63 | $27.25 | -$1.39 | 48% 2150-2299 (4449) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $3.36 | $0.63 | -$0 | 80% 10286-2632 (12918) |
Invested
$1,470.77
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$35.57
Record
36%
13289-23211 (36500)
IstarothInvested
$532.55
Value
$511.92
PnL
-$5.47
Record
51%
269-258 (527)
Invested
$85.85
Value
$99.97
PnL
+$14.12
Record
46%
1596-1860 (3456)
probability<$100Invested
$69.8
Value
$79.65
PnL
+$9.85
Record
42%
1239-1688 (2927)
Invested
$51.6
Value
$53.1
PnL
+$1.5
Record
44%
4871-6203 (11074)
Invested
$28.63
Value
$27.25
PnL
-$1.39
Record
48%
2150-2299 (4449)
Invested
$3.36
Value
$0.63
PnL
-$0
Record
80%
10286-2632 (12918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.